000
AGXX40 KNHC 151815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NORTHERN MEXICO 
ALONG 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING N OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N89W AND PERSISTING AS AN ANCHOR TO 
RIDGE WITH AN AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH ALONG 23N THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM WEST TEXAS 
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THU AND FRI WILL STALL NEAR 27N101W AND ACT 
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF 
LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE RECEDES EASTWARD TO E OF 90W. 
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE N CENTRAL GULF EARLY WED THEN SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR 
NE WATERS THROUGH THU. PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AND 
INCREASED CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE IS MINIMAL. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 
ALONG 45W FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT 
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI...REACHING THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING.

STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69-77W THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPAND 
TO THE N AND W THU THROUGH FRI THEN SHRINK AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. 
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH 
FRI NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN THE HONDURAS GULF AND 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT S OF 17N EACH EVENING THIS WEEK BEGINNING 
WED EVENING. 
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIPPING TO 24N SE OF FLORIDA MIAMI 
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THU 
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

MODERATE SOUTHERLY KT FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 
KT THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. THE GRADIENT 
WILL RELAX WED NIGHT WITH THE SLY FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 
THROUGH SAT. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT OVER WATERS S OF 25N...EXCEPT TO 15-20 
KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. 
 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.