000 AGXX40 KNHC 150457 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1257 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 24N86W LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THEN RE-APPEAR ON WED AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT N LATE THU...WITH A HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 26N83W LATE FRI. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REACH A POSITION NEAR 27N84W LATE SAT WITH THE RIDGE STILL CONTINUING WNW TO THE NE TX COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF WELL TO THE N OF THE RIDGE EARLY WED...AND SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28.5N BY EARLY THU. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN E-SE 5-10 KT FLOW...WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT...ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N W OF 85W THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU TO ACROSS THE WATERS EVERYWHERE N OF 24N W OF 93W... WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 89W ON THU NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED AT 20-25 KT RETURN OVER THE NW WATERS BRIEFLY ON THU NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST GFS RUN IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM WITH A MAX OF 20 KT. LIGHT SW-W WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NE AND E-CENTRAL GULF EARLY TODAY THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE FAR NE WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN BECOME SW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON WED NIGHT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE RIDGE AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CENTER. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT...RE- APPEAR WED AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATED WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 24N THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THU WITH WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF BECOMING SE AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN DIMINISHING 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK. THE WAVE HAS MOVED W OF AN AREA OF UPPER SUPPORT AND CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND DO NOT SEE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TILL THE WAVE REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN AND THEN ONLY TO THE S OF 14N. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ROUGHLY WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11-15.5N BETWEEN 69-77W THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE N AND W AGAIN ON THU-FRI...THEN SHRINK AGAIN ON SAT-SUN. THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN LATE NIGHT OFF THE EXTREME N COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND THEN OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON WED EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ENE-WSW RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO FORT PIERCE FL WILL SHIFT S TO A POSITION FROM 31N55W TO SE FL TONIGHT. THE FAR W SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FL STRAITS EARLY WED AND OVER THE CAY SAL BANK LATE WED. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY N ON THU TERMINATING NEAR PALM BEACH FL ON FRI NIGHT AND NEAR FT PIERCE FL ON SAT NIGHT. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FLOW THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WED NIGHT WITH THE SLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THROUGH MIDDAY THU...AND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N... EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING WED EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON SAT EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.