000 AGXX40 KNHC 141745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL THROUGH WED THEN THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WED NIGHT ONWARD. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE GFS HAS GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI THAT ARE LIKELY DEEPENING THE SURFACE PRESSURES TOO MUCH AND GENERATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN THE WESTERN GULF. CONFIDENCE WANES IN THE GFS SOLUTION BY WED NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE 12Z GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS THROUGH WED WITH THE ECMWF RELIED ON WED NIGHT ONWARD. THE NWPS AND MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE WAVES...BUT MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE WESTERN GULF WERE BROUGHT DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS IN THE GFS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS IN CARIBBEAN. MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL PASS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUE...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR W OF THE THIS WAVE S OF 14N TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE 1436 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. SWELL IS STILL SUBSIDING...WITH THE ALTIKA PASS FROM 1103 UTC SHOWING SEAS TO 15 FT DOWNWIND OF THE ARE WHERE NEAR GALE FORCE OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK TO THE S CENTRAL PORTION THROUGH WED AS THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SW N ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FILL WESTWARD AS THIS INVERTED TROUGH DISSIPATES...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING IN AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN BY THU BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SEEN ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WILL TAKE A BREAK UNTIL THU MORNING. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N TONIGHT BEFORE TAKING A BREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN HERE WED NIGHT AND PULSE HERE EACH EVENING INTO SAT. THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETTER AT HANDLING THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS UNDER A TRADE REGIME. THEREFORE...THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE NWPS WAS TOO LOW INITIALLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT STATIONS 41040...41060 AND 41041 AT 1200 UTC. THE GFS AND EC WAVE WERE BETTER INITIALIZED HERE AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE ECMWF WINDS...AND THE SWELL THEY GENERATE...PREFERRED TO BE PART OF THE SOLUTION IN THE ATLC. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. EC WAVE AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE SW N ATLC. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF WINDS/SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIE OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT THU EVENING THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRADE REGIME S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE GFS GENERALLY HANDLES THESE FINE- SCALE DETAILS WELL. TO THE N...THE GFS CARRIES DEEPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. TUE INTO WED. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL ARE RELATIVELY MINOR...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HELPS ALLEVIATE ANY ISSUES HERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.