000 AGXX40 KNHC 131801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WINDS/SEAS TO EXCEED THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT WILL COME LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIVES FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI WHEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO TEXAS...INCREASING THE SE RETURN FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MON...THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT NEAR THIS WAVE S OF 14N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT LOOK FOR THE IMPACTED AREA TO GRADUALLY SHRINK TO THE S CENTRAL PORTION THROUGH WED AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATES TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FILL WESTWARD AS THIS INVERTED TROUGH DISSIPATES...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING IN AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN BY THU BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SEEN ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WILL APPEAR AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TAKE A BREAK UNTIL THU MORNING. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS BEST INITIALIZED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THERE WERE WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT WINDS THIS MORNING. IT IS GENERALLY BETTER AT HANDLING THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS UNDER A TRADE REGIME. THEREFORE...THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE SW N ATLC. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF WINDS/SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIE OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT THU EVENING AND FRI EVENING. THE GFS GENERALLY HANDLES THESE FINE- SCALE DETAILS WELL. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. WINDS WERE ALREADY RUNNING SLIGHTLY WEAK COMPARED TO EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES HERE AND A 23 KT OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP J8NZ AT 1200 UTC...SO WINDS AND SEAS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.