000 AGXX40 KNHC 120457 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1257 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NE GULF TO THE NE TX COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE 5-10 KT FLOW...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N W OF 85W THROUGH LATE MON. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ON WED TO EVERYWHERE N OF 24N W OF 91W WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE RIDGE AND OCCASIONALLY AROUND THE EMBEDDED SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A HEAT TROUGH FORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA DISSECTING THE ATLC RIDGE FROM THE GULF. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LOSE IDENTITY EACH NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE S OF 24N THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY TSTMS MAINLY TO THE N OF 19N. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED W OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL PASS W THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 18N ON TUE AND WED. STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN AREA OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND ON SUN EVENING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS EFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SUN EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A N-S ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND BAHAMA CHANNEL EARLY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS. AN E-W RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG 32N W OF 55W WILL SHIFT S TO A POSITION FROM 31N70W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL EARLY SUN...FROM 31N70W TO FORT PIERCE FL ON TUE...AND FROM 31N55W TO PORT OF MIAMI FL ON WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE ON MON NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON TUE NIGHT WITH 10-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN ON WED NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N...EXCEPT FOR EVENING 15-20 KT PULSES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.