000 AGXX40 KNHC 111848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH LATEST MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS VALUES FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 83W N OF 24N. LATEST BUOY...CMAN STATIONS AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT NE OF A LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO 26N90W TO NW CUBA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE CONFINED TO THE SW AND W CENTRAL SECTIONS AS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NW TO NEAR 27N94W WORKS WITH A PRESENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVING WESTWARD ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS ENTERS THE SAME PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 85W SAT NIGHT...AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF SECTION BY LATE SUN. EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS PARAMETERS WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES...WITH NE- E WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE-E 25 KT WINDS WITH MAX SEAS OF 10 FT. ALTIMETER DATA FROM LATE THIS MORNING...AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION S OF 13N W OF 80W. SEAS WITHIN THE 25-30 KT WIND AREA ARE UP TO 12 FT. TRADES ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W...AND 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT W OF 84W...AND 2-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SEAS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 10-13 FT RANGE THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 12 FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE. THE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...HOWEVER SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELLS ARE CONFINED FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 57W. THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATE TONIGHT...AND TO 4-5 FT BY SUN. NE TO E SWELLS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE 29 THROUGH SUN...AND SUBSIDE TO 8 FT MON AND TUE. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 39 AS WELL. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN THROUGH TUE. E WINDS OF 20- 25 KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT TUE AFTERNOON...AND START UP AGAIN AT 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT MON NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY TUE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME OVER THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITHIN A FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW PART WHERE SE-S 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 77W. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM RECENT ONES WITH RESPECT TO FEATURES AND WIND/SEA CONDITIONS. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 27N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TO ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS OR POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.