000 AGXX40 KNHC 110514 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 114 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NE GULF TO THE NE TX COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW...WITH SEAS 3-5 FT... ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 81W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH 5-10 KT WINDS ON SAT THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE RIDGE AND OCCASIONALLY AROUND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN N-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 24N THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOSTLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LOSE IDENTITY EACH NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER N- CENTRAL MEXICO IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE N ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF 70W. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND SUN AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN AREA OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EACH EVENING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SUN EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK N-S ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WITH ISOL RW...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCT RW/ISOL TS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PASS W OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AN E-W RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 31N65W TO NE FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N...WITH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING 20-25 KT PULSES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.