000 AGXX40 KNHC 101855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG 27N/28N. AS OF 15 UTC A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 27N86W. LATEST BUOY...CMAN STATIONS AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH WIND DIRECTION IN AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE AS CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH CENTER. THE DIURNAL SW GULF TROUGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 95W. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT NE OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO 26N90W TO NW CUBA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED THESE WAVE HEIGHT VALUES. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED TO ITS E OVER THE SW GULF. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING INCREASED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FAR THE WESTERN GULF FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ALREADY PRESENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. LIGHTNING DATA IS DETECTING FREQUENT STRIKES WITH THE ACTIVITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS KICKING UP ROUGH SEAS OVER THAT PART OF THE GULF. THE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY AT NIGHT THEN REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE AND HIGH CENTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO WILL RETREAT WESTWARD THROUGH SAT. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER WINDS FROM THE NE AT SPEEDS OF 20 KT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES...WITH NE- E WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE-E 25 KT WINDS WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT. ALTIMETER DATA FROM LATE THIS MORNING...AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION S OF 13N W OF 80W. SEAS WITHIN THE 25-30 KT WIND AREA MAXING OUT UP TO 12 FT. TRADES ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 8- 12 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W...AND 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT W OF 84W...AND 2-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SEAS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 12 FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W WITH SEAS THERE NOW UP TO THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT AS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THIS CONDITIONS HAVE PERKED UP IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 60W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BY EARLY ON FRI...THE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO S OF 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W...BUT DIMINISH SHORTLY THEREAFTER TO 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN NE SWELLS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 7 FT SAT...AND TO 5-6 FT SUN. NE TO E SWELLS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE 29 THROUGH SUN...AND SUBSIDE TO 8 FT MON AND TUE. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 39 AS WELL. E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY MON BEFORE STARTING UP AGAIN TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT MON NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY TUE MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEAR 30N67W TO S FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME OVER THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS SW TO S FLORIDA. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWARD FROM THERE TO N OF 31N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITHIN A FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS S OF OF THE RIDGE... ...WHILE S-WW 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NW OF THE RIDGE PER BUOY REPORTS THERE. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT N OF THE RIDGE E OF 73W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 73W. SEAS S OF THE RIDGE ARE 4-6 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS MUCH LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIOANRY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING N TO NEAR 29N FRI...TO NEAR 31N SAT... THEN SHIFT BACK S TO NEAR 28N SUN THROUGH TUE. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR 71W/72W WILL BECOME MORE DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FRI...AND TO ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FRI EVENING...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 15-20 KT EARLY ON SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AROUND THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.