000 AGXX40 KNHC 091848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 28N87W. LATEST BUOY...CMAN STATIONS AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH WIND DIRECTION IN AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE AS CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH CENTER. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND SE MEXICO...WHILE A TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT E OF A LINE FROM 30N19W TO 25N88W TO 22N85W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED THESE WAVE HEIGHT VALUES. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 25N88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SW AND W CENTRAL GULF...WHILE SIMILAR ACTIVITY NOTED ELSEWHERE IS DUE THE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. LIGHTNING DATA IS DETECTING FREQUENT STRIKES WITH MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS ARE VERY PROBABLE AS WELL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY AT NIGHT THEN REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE RIDGE AND HIGH CENTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER WINDS FROM THE NE AT SPEEDS OF 20 KT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES...WITH NE- E WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THESE GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING MAX SEAS OF 9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTED SEAS OF ABOUT 2 FT LESS JUST TO THE E OF THIS BUOY. SEAS WITHIN THE PRESENT GALE AREA ARE MAXING OUT UP TO 14 FT. TRADES ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT W OF 84W...AND 2-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD SEAS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 12 FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE 37 WHERE NE SWELLS BUILDING SEAS TO THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT ARE NOW OCCURRING UNDER NE 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT AS A TROPICAL WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONES. THESE WINDS EXPAND WESTWARD TO NEAR 59W BY THU AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. ON FRI...THE WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THESE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. NE-E SWELLS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE 29 THROUGH MON...AND TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 39 AS WELL. THE RESULTANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7-11 FT...BUT SUBSIDE TO 9 FT SUN AND MON. THE E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE JUST RECENTLY DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 20-25 TONIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT THU MORNING. SEAS THERE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY THU MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEAR 30N65W TO S FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME OVER THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS SW TO S FLORIDA. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWARD FROM THERE TO N OF 31N AND BETWEEN 75W-79W. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FLORIDA...AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO THU WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITHIN A FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS S OF OF THE RIDGE...WHILE VARIABLE MOSTLY SW-W 5-10 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE RIDGE PER BUOY REPORTS...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT N OF THE RIDGE...AND 4-6 FT S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE LOWER...0-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ...AND ALSO N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 77W. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIOANRY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING N TO NEAR 31N THU AND HOLD THERE INTO MON. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME E OF 70W TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU...AND OVER THE SW WATER THU NIGHT AND FRI TO ACROSS S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST TO TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 15-20 KT EARLY THU...AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT. BY EARLY FRI...THESE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN TO 15-20 KT AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.