000 AGXX40 KNHC 081844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 28N87W. LATEST BUOY...CMAN STATIONS AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH WIND DIRECTION IN AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE AS CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH CENTER. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 93W MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SW GULF (ZONE 23) WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS REVEALED SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR W PART OF THAT SAME ZONE. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THE SW UPPER FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEWD OVER THE BASIN. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS ALLOWING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXITS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH A HEAVIER CONCENTRATION OF SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY SEEN N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-91W. GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGHER SEAS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT B4EFORE MOVING INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF THE WAVE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY AT NIGHT THEN REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE AND HIGH CENTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER WINDS FROM THE NE AT SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR TROPICAL N ATLANTIC SECTION...AND USED NWPS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES...WITH NE-E WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING MAX SEAS OF 9-10 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTED SIMILAR SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-12 FT FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE HIGHER...IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT. TRADES ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF ABOUT 84W. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD SEAS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE 37 WHERE NE SWELLS WILL USHER IN SEAS OF 6-8 FT UNDER NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS BEGINNING WED. ON WED EVENING...WINDS THERE INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THESE WINDS EXPAND WESTWARD TO NEAR 59W BY THU AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. ON FRI...THE WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THESE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. NE-E SWELLS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE 29 TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 39 AS WELL. THE RESULTANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7-11 FT. E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 20-25 KT WED NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT THU MORNING. SEAS THERE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT EARLY WED BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY WED AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEAR 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME OVER THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS SW TO S FLORIDA. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND N TO NEAR 29N BETWEEN 75W-78W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO WED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITHIN A FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS S OF OF THE RIDGE...WHILE S-SW 5-10 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE RIDGE. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT N OF THE RIDGE...AND 4-6 FT S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE LOWER...1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 77W. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIOANRY THROUGH WED NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING N TO NEAR 31N THU AND HOLD THERE INTO SUN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN E OF 70W. A TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL WATERS WED THROUGH THU ...AND OVER THE FAR SW WATER FRI...AND TO ACROSS S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.