000 AGXX40 KNHC 061724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY EACH NIGHT...AND REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER SUPPORT HAS MAINTAINED A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF LAST NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE GULF AND OVER FL BY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N88W AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SE REACHING NEAR 26N83W THIS EVENING AND RE-ORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NW-SE TO A SE-NW ORIENTATED CRESTING NEAR THE NE TX COAST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N ALONG 83W TO ABOUT 28N ON MON WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MAINTAINING THE RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH MAY BRIEFLY LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W UNINTERRUPTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE A TROUGH OVER FL EFFECTIVELY DISSECTING THE ATLC RIDGE... AND THE HIGH CIRCULATION WILL APPEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF EACH DAY. EXPECTING 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N THROUGH EARLY MON... THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE MON. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT WITH THESE E-SE 15 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 22-25N TO THE W OF 89W BY MID WEEK. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...MON EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUE EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT MID WEEK WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING STARTING ON WED EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PASS WESTWARD THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BRIEFLY INCREASING TO NEAR GALE TONIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N75W. THESE NOCTURNAL NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN ON MON NIGHT... AND RESUME AGAIN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT EXPANDING OUT TO AS MUCH AS 300 NM NW OF THE COLOMBIA COAST ON TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. NOTE THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS SUGGESTED MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...AND ONLY BRIEFLY ON WED ON PREVIOUS RUN AND ON SAT ON LATEST RUN. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON TUE EVENING AND WED EVENING...WITH ONLY A 20 KT MAX EXPECTED ON THU AND FRI EVENINGS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO PORT CANAVERAL. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REACH 10-15 KT EACH NIGHT AND DIMINISHING TO 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N...WITH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING 20-25 KT PULSES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.