000 AGXX40 KNHC 051707 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 107 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND OVER MEXICO TO THE S OF 24N EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY EACH NIGHT...AND REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS TROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 25N87W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOL RW/TS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OVER FL ON SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO 25N84W. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE ALONG THE RIDGE TODAY REACHING NEAR THE MS DELTA THIS EVENING...AND REACHING NEAR 27N83W LATE SUN AND RE-ORIENT THE RIDGE NW TO THE SW LA COAST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N TO NEAR 28N83W BY MID WEEK BUT MAINTAIN THE RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD. EXPECTING 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 24N THROUGH SUN THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT WITH THE E-SE 15 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 22-25N TO THE W OF 88W BY MID WEEK. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND SUN EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING STARTING ON MON EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED RW/TS FLARING MAINLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT... REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS MON...AND PASSING W THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS ON WED AND THU. STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE TONIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING ONLY A 25 KT MAX ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT. THEN THE NOCTURNAL NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...AND RESUME AGAIN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ON SUN EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON TUE EVENING AND WED EVENING...WITH ONLY A 20 KT MAX EXPECTED ON THU EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO CENTRAL FL. A WEAK LOW PRES OF ABOUT 1019 MB HAS MOVED OFF THE GA COAST TO NEAR 31.5N81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER N OF THE AREA TODAY AND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE TO 10-15 KT ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N...WITH EVENING 20-25 KT PULSES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.