000
AGXX40 KNHC 050701
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF IS 
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL 
SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW 
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO WESTERN CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING WEST OF THE RIDGE FROM HOUSTON TX TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED IN THIS AREA BY DIVERGENT 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
95W. WEAK HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR MISSISSIPPI DELTA TONIGHT WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HIGH 
WILL MEANDER SUN THROUGH WED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SW LA. 
AS A RESULT EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO 
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED...EXCEPT ENHANCED 15-20 KT 
WINDS NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA AND E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W HAS NO 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN AND HELP MAINTAIN FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN TYPICAL FAVORED AREA NEAR 
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA APPROACHING NEAR GALE. THE GRADIENT 
WILL RELAX SUNDAY SUPPORTING A 25 KT MAX WINDS. NEAR GALE WINDS  
RESUME MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN  
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 58W WILL ENTER E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT 
AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON. FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS WILL STRENGTHEN EACH EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT 
HOURS UNTIL MON NIGHT.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE WIND REGIME...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO SEVERAL MORE DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MON. THE 
RIDGE WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E ACROSS FL TO STALL THEN DISSIPATE OVER 
FAR NW WATERS SUN. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE NE 
WATERS THIS EVENING. THE DOMINANT RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 
EXTEND FURTHER WEST ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N SUN THROUGH WED. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.