000 AGXX40 KNHC 041706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 106 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS E-W ACROSS FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO THE MS DELTA TO THE S-CENTRAL LA COASTAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 28N88W AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS ON SAT AND MOVE E OF THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 22N ALONG 94W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE W OVER INTERIOR MEXICO SETTING UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW GULF. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED IN THIS AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED AS A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS E TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MS DELTA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 26N85W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT S OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT E TO NEAR 27N84W LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH WED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SW LA. EXPECTING 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 24N THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS... EXCEPT ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING A 25 KT MAX ON SUN NIGHT. THE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS RESUME AGAIN ON MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON SAT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MID WEEK. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE TRADES MAY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE NEAR THE WAVE ALL EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER AREA OF STRONG TRADES. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG EACH EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SPREAD N COVERING THE WATERS S OF 17N W OF 84.5W ON TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO SE FL. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE WERE AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 5-7 FT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND 5-10 KT ON SAT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTATED E-W ALONG 28N. THE RIDGE WILL RELAX SOME ON SAT. A N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH... CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL SHIFT E ACROSS FL AND STALL OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON SAT EVENING AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE NE WATERS ON SAT. THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES E-W ALONG 29N ON SUN SHIFTING FROM 30N65W TO 28N80W BY MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.