000 AGXX40 KNHC 030757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. AND GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. BLEND OF LATEST MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 28N94W WITH OVERALL WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE WINDS OVER THE FAR NE GULF ARE GENERALLY W-NW MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR CURRENTLY E-NE OF OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS FIRING UP AGAIN OVER THE FAR NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W...AND IS CAUSING THESE WINDS TO BECOME SHIFTY AT TIMES. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 93W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. AS ARTHUR LIFTS TO THE N...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER THERE THROUGH SAT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS FORECAST VALID THROUGH MON NIGHT AS GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL RELATIVELY ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND POSSIBLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT MAY ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 21N80W TO 12N84W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ALONG 63W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES ALONG 43W FROM 10N TO 23N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 10-12 FT S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-76W...AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 19N W OF 82W...AND 1-2 FT SEAS N OF 19N W OF 78W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GAIN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KT. FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT...BEFORE ENTERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THERE THROUGH SUN. THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON FRI...THEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO EARLY MON...AND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON MON AND MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL/TCM FOR NW N OF BAHAMAS W OF 77W...AND A BLEND OF GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR REMAINDER AREA. USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS NWPS AND NWW3 WAVES FOR N OF BAHAMAS W OF 77W (ZONE 111)...AND A BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR REMAINDER OF AREA. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SW OF CAPE HATTERAS N CAROLINA AT PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT. ARTHUR HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO JUST N OF THE FORECAST WATERS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACH NEAR 32.5N78.W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF ZONE 111...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON AS ARTHUR PULLS AWAY FROM THE TAFB AOR WATERS. STRONG SE-S WINDS IN THE NW CORNER OF ZONE 113 ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING TODAY. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS IN THE AFFECTED ZONE AREAS PERTAINING TO 111 AND THE WESTERN HALF OF 113 WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. OUTSIDE THE IMPACT AREA OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUING OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N65W NW TO 31N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 25N TO 29N. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES AGAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM 30N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE HIGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS SAT THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.