000 AGXX40 KNHC 021827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 27N93W WITH OVERALL WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF WITHIN THE PERIPHERALCIRCULATION OF T.S. ARTHUR CURRENTLY OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE JUST ABOUT EVERY WHERE EXCEPT FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 94W. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WED AT WHICH TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NE GULF. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT WITH A POSSIBLE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL VARY VERY LITTLE PREVIOUS ONES AS GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL RELATIVELY ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND POSSIBLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT MAY ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z ANALYSIS HAS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 75W/76W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AND YET A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 57W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 8-10 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-73W....AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 19N W OF 82W ...AND 1-2 FT SEAS N OF 19N W OF 78W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A GENERAL 20-25 KT. FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THU EVENING. THE WAVE ALONG 75W WILL REACH NEAR 79W/80W THU...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL/TCM FOR NW N OF BAHAMAS W OF 77W...AND A BLEND OF GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR REMAINDER AREA. USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS NWPS AND NWW3 WAVES WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WAVEHEIGHTS FOR N OF BAHAMAS W OF 77W (ZONE 111). HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARTHUR WAS LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA PER THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1800 UTC JUL 2 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWARD WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INTENSIFYING TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT BY THIS EVENING NEAR 30.1N 78.9W...TO 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT EARLY THU NEAR 31.5N 78.5W...THEN REACH HURRICANE FORCE OF 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT N OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY LATE THU LATE NEAR 33.5N 76.8W. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS IN ZONE AMZ111 WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. SHOULD ARTHUR DEVIATE TO THE E TROPICAL STORM WARNING IMPACTS MAY SPREAD TO AMZ113 AS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. PERIPHERAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY IN THE GRIDS AS ARTHUR CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT FORECAST TRACK. OUTSIDE THE IMPACT AREA OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUING OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO 31N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES AGAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM 30N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE HIGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS SAT THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.