000 AGXX40 KNHC 020800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 27N90W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT JUST ABOUT EVERY WHERE EXCEPT FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 94W. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...E OF OF 85W...THE FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME CYCLONIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PRESENTLY E OF THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WED AT WHICH TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NE GULF. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL VARY VERY LITTLE PREVIOUS ONES AS GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL RELATIVELY ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND POSSIBLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT MAY ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...E OF OF 85W...THE FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME CYCLONIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PRESENTLY E OF THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WED AT WHICH TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NE GULF. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT BUT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED ON WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W/84W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 74W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AND YET A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 8-10 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-73W....AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 19N W OF 82W ...AND 1-2 FT SEAS N OF 19N W OF 78W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE RANGE. FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THU EVENING. THE WAVE ALONG 74W WILL REACH NEAR 77W TONIGHT....NEAR 82W THU NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECWMF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR NW N OF BAHAMAS W OF 77W...AND A BLEND OF GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR REMAINDER AREA. USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS NWPS AND NWW3 WAVES WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WAVEHEIGHTS FOR N OF BAHAMAS W OF 77W (ZONE 111). HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC JUL 2. ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES NEAR 29.3N 79.3W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT...AND REACH NEAR THE BORDER OF TAFB AND OPC AORS BY LATE TONIGHT NEAR 30.5N 79.0W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS OF 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT IN ZONE AMZ111 WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. SHOULD ARTHUR DEVIATE TO THE E TROPICAL STORM WARNING IMPACTS MAY SPREAD TO AMZ113 AS WINDS SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. PERIPHERY WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY IN THE GRIDS AS ARTHUR CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT FORECAST TRACK. OUTSIDE THE IMPACT AREA OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT N ON FRI AS ARTHUR LIFTS NE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N64W TO 31N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.