000 AGXX40 KNHC 011841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE E OF ABOUT 91W...AND 3-5 FT W OF 91W WITH HIGHEST SEAS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FORECAST WILL FEATURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONES AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NW GULF WED WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 85W WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR EAST OF FLORIDA INTO THU. THEREAFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N ALONG 79W/80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE BETTER DEFINED ONE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION IS ALONG 71W MOVING W AT 15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 8-11 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W- 78W. THE RECENT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE AGAIN BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT. FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 19N W OF 82W ...AND 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 19N W OF 78W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR NW PORTION OF AREA WHERE NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS LOCATED. USED LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS NWPS AND NWW3 WAVES WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 77W. NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STROM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1500 UTC JUL 1 ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGHTEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK TIMELINE IS THUS...ARTHUR WILL BE NEAR 28.7N 79.6W EARLY WED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT AND THEN ALONG THE BORDER OF TAFB AND OPC AORS BY EARLY THU NEAR 31.2N 78.9W WITH MAXIMUM SUSUATINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT IN ZONE AMZ111 WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. SHOULD ARTHUR DEVIATE TO THE EAST TROPICAL STORM IMPACTS MAY SPREAD TO AMZ113. OUTSIDE THE IMPACT AREA OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE N-NE SEEN TO THE NW AND N OF THE LOW. A SMALL POCKET OF GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS IS JUST ALONG THE NW COAST OF HAITI TO EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT N ON FRI AS ARTHUR LIFTS NE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEAS MAY BREAK OFF...AND WNW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONEVECTIVE ACTITVITY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.