000 AGXX40 KNHC 010655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF AT 28.5N89W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE E OF ABOUT 91W...AND 3-5 FT W OF 91W. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONES AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NW GULF WED WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE STEERED BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION E OF FLORIDA FORECAST TO BECOME A STORM LATER THIS MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N ALONG 78W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE BETTER DEFINED ONE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION IS ALONG 69W/70W MOVING W AT 15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 8-11 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W- 78W. THE RECENT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE AGAIN BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT. FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 19N W OF 82W ...AND 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 19N W OF 78W. THE TROPCIAL WAVE ALONG 69W/70W WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR NW PORTION OF AREA WHERE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS LOCATED. USED LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVES PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 77W. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED LAST NIGHT AT 0300 UTC NEAR 27.6N 79.1W..AND AS OF 2 AM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC JUL 1 THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING NEAR 27.6N 79.4W...THEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES NEAR 28.0N 79.7W EARLY TONIGHT...NEAR 28.8N 79.9W EARLY ON WED... THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP ITS FORWARDS AS IT REACHES NEAR 30.1N 79.9W EARLY WED NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE EARLY THU AND BE NEAR 33.0N 78.3W BY EARLY THU NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW PORTION (ZONE 111) WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CYCLONE THROUGH THU. WILL ADJUST SEAS/WINDS ACCORDINGLY. OUTSIDE THE IMPACT AREA OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE N-NE SEEN TO THE NW AND N OF THE LOW. A SMALL POCKET OF GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS IS JUST ALONG THE NW COAST OF HAITI TO EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT N ON FRI AS THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LIFTS NE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEAS MAY BREAK OFF...AND WNW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONEVECTIVE ACTITVITY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.