000 AGXX40 KNHC 301854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. SAL HAS MOVED THROUGH W PORTIONS AND STILL EVIDENT IN LCH AND SIL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING...AND MOVING AROUND THE HIGH. SOME MOISTURE AND PIECE OF ENERGY OF TROPICAL WAVE IN EPAC ACTING TO KICK OFF CLUSTER OF CNVTN IN SW GULF WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN SHOOTING OUT TO THE NNW. NLY FLOW ON W SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW E OF FLORIDA PRODUCING NLY FLOW 10-15 KT ALONG W COASTAL WATERS ATTM AND SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT. OTHERWISE...MODEST FETCH OF SELY FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS MAINTAINING SEAS 4-6 FT ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE IN GUIDANCE IN RECENT RUNS...AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HIGH TO MEANDER ABOUT N CENTRAL PORTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING INTO NW PORTIONS AS E COAST LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT BY WED AND NLY FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS BUILDS INTO NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. TROUGHING ACROSS SW GULF EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WED AS PORTION OF WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS SW CARIB AND EPAC PROPAGATES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SHOULD INDUCE LINES AND CLUSTERS OF CNVTN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WEAK RIDGE ACROSS W ATLC HAS REDUCED PRES GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONFINED TO S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 15N PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES. HAVE ADJUSTED WW3 OUTPUT BASED ON ALTIMETER PASSES OF PAST 8 HOURS SHOWING TRADEWIND SWELL PROPAGATING MORE SW THAN W AND HAVE INCREASED SEAS ACROSS SW PORTIONS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS E CARIB ATTM AND ACCURATELY DEPICTED BY GFS SHIFTING MORE WNW AND ACROSS NE CARIB ISLANDS...YIELDING SQUALLS AND TSTMS MOVING WNW AND INTO EDGE OF SAL. N PORTION OF WAVE TO FRACTURE IN NEXT FEW DAYS AND RAKE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE S PORTION MOVES WWD...REACHING NEAR 80W BY 48 HRS AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W BY 72 HRS. REDUCED GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS DROPPED WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS PAST 24 HOURS AND FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHEN E COAST LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NW AND ALLOWS ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD WEAKLY SW INTO BAHAMAS...AND INCREASES PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN AGAIN. NOCTURNAL WIND MAX TO RETURN TO AROUND 30 KT STARTING WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS RIDGING RETURNS TO W ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RIDGE HAS WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS AS WEAK FRONT AND PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE ACROSS NE PORTIONS...AND LOW OFFSHORE OF FL BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW HAD BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION DIMINISHED ACROSS ALL BUT S PORTIONS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY MID LEVEL AIR INFRINGING. HOWEVER...CELLS ARE POPPING WITHIN SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER NOW AND CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS S HALF OF SYSTEM. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE SSW NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MAKE A CYCLONIC TURN TOWARD THE N AND EXIT OUT OF LOCAL AREA AT AROUND 72 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ENVIRONMENT TO MOISTEN NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND WE SHOULD HAVE A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME...AND CERTAINLY BY 72 HOURS...WHEN GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TS FORCE WINDS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE BY TOMORROW AT LEAST 25 KT AND LIKELY 25-30 KT BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TO THE E AND SE AND RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO AREA MODESTLY AS LOW LIFTS OUT. N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E CARIB ATTM TO FRACTURE OFF AND MOVE WNW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NEXT 72 HRS...ENHANCING LLVL CONVERGENCE AND CNVTN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.