000 AGXX40 KNHC 300759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF AT 29N87W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N95W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTION FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 94W WHERE HIGHER RANGES OF 6-7 FT ARE OBSERVED. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE 1020 MB HIGH WILL DRIFT NW TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE IT DRIFTS A LITTLE TO W ON WED...AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE STEERED BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES THAT MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE E OF FLORIDA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST MOVED INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N ALONG 60W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE BETTER DEFINED ONE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION IS PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE 0152 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT NICELY CAPTURED THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVER AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 16N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED IN THE 0250 UTC ASCAT FROM LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED SINCE 12-24 HRS AGO. SEAS APPEARED TO HAVE LOWERED TO JUST UNDER 8 FT IN THE GULF. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGES OF 8-11 FT S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-80W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MUCH HIGHER SEAS OF 10- 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL L CARIBBEAN...AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR A BATCH OF 6-8 FT SEAS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-61W. BUOY 41040 AT 14.5N53W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN AN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 9 SEC. THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY INTO TUE...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW THROUGH TUE. NWPS PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO LOW PRES OVER THE NW PORTION. A WEAK PRES PATTERN HAS BEEN ESTABLISED OVER THE BASIN...WHILE LOW PRES OF 1014 MB IS NEAR 29N78W DRIFTING SW. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE N-NE SEEN TO THE NW AND N OF THE LOW. A SMALL POCKET OF GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS IS JUST ALONG THE NW COAST OF HAITI TO EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST TO COMPENSATE FOR DIFFERENCES IN MODELS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SW TO NEAR 28N79W LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NW TO NEAR 29N80W BY TUE AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN NEAR THAT LOCATION TUE NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO JUST N OF THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 31N80W BY LATE WED NIGHT WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL MAINLY INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT...BUT MAY BE MUCH HIGHER IF WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDS AS NECESSARY...PENDING JUST HOW THE LOW EVOLVES FURTHER WITH RESPECT TO ITS IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.