000 AGXX40 KNHC 291859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ACROSS FAR NE GULF NEAR 30N86W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO SW PORTIONS. FRESH SE TO SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT KICKED UP SEAS 4-7 FT ACROSS THE W HALF OF BASIN AND ARE HOLDING AT THERE AS BUOY 42055 HAS RETURNED TO 7 FT PAST 2 HOURS. VIS STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SAL ACROSS ALMOST ENTIRE W HALF OF BASIN W OF 90W AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN LCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND SUGGESTED ARRIVING AT SIL. HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SW NEXT 48 HOURS THEN SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL GULF TUE-WED WITH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BY TUE ALL BUT SW PORTIONS WITH E TO SE WINDS 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT WILL PREVAIL. TROPICAL WAVE TO SWEEP NW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW PORTIONS TUE-WED FOR INCREASE IN WEATHER AND INSTABILITY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WRN LOBE OF ATLC RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SE INTO FAR NE PORTIONS WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT...AND LOW INVOF 29.5N77.5W IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING BROADER LLVL CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS S. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW GULF ATTM AND SPREADING WIND SURGE INTO NICARAGUA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE OUTER SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. WINDS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT AND 8 FT THIS MORNING AND NOT EXPECTED TO PULSE BACK FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO BE NUDGED FARTHER S TONIGHT BY SWEEPING FRONT...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS FOR NOCTURNAL MAX TO AROUND 30 KT AND 11 FT BY EARLY MORNING. GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUE-WED AS S CENTRAL WIND MAX SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EWD AND LESS NE WRAP ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES ATTM EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE W-NW AND BEGIN TO LIFT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL DYNAMICS INTO NE CARIB AND COULD BRUSH NE CARIB ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SAL IN BETWEEN EACH AEW EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND WITH AND BEHIND WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES HAS BUILT A SIZABLE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN ENE SWELL THAT SPREAD TO NEAR 45W AND WILL SHIFT WWD AND INTO ISLANDS NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS SHIFT INTO CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LEANING MORE TOWARD ECMWF AND ECENS BY DAY 3 WRN LOBE OF ATLC RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SE INTO FAR NE PORTIONS WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT...AND LOW INVOF 29.5N77.5W IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING BROADER LLVL CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS S. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND 15-20 KT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW OFF N FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER BAND OF 15-20 KT REMAINS REMOVED FROM CENTER NEAR 150 NM ACROSS NW SEMICIRCLE...ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT MODEL TRENDS WITH STILL SOME MODEST SPREAD...WITH LOW FORECAST TO MAKE A SLOW SSW DRIFT NEXT 48 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE IN A GRADUAL CYCLONIC LOOP. BET CHANCES AT STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS THIS LOW LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...IMPROVED LLVL CIRCULATION AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGESTS SLOW ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. AMBIENT PRESSURES JUST TOO HIGH FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LLVL CONVECTION FORCING ACROSS FL WILL THUS BE CONTINGENT ON WIND FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE. NNE WIND SWELL TO SHIFT DOWN COASTLINE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BUILD TO MODERATE LEVELS IN NE SWELL AS LOW LIFTS OUT SHOULD IT WRAP UP TO 25 OR 30 KT. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING GRADIENT S TO SE WINDS ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE AS LOW LIFTS OUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.