000 AGXX40 KNHC 290800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N86W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 29N93W. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS NOTED IN THE 0356 UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT N-NE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS OBSERVED FROM 24N TO 28N W OF 94W. THE 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WILL DRIFT NW TO NEAR 30N87W THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON MON. MODELS IN AGREEMENTS THAT THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT S AND MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH WED WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO FLORIDA BAY THROUGH WED. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON THU AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS HAS WEAKENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 77W...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN THESE WAVES ALONG 66W/67W S OF 16N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 43W/44W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY. A RECENT ATLTIMETER PASS REVEALED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 8-12 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-76W...6-7 FT FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W-78W...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 51W-58W AS WAS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER DATA PASSES. BUOY 41040 AT 14.5N53W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE-E SWELLS. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF THE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM ABOUT 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W- 56W. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUE...TO INLAND BELIZE/HONDURAS AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. THE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL PASS ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT... AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU. YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TUE NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE WAVES WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SHORT RESPITE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OCCURRING OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH LARGER WEIGHT GIVEN TO ECMWF. NWPS PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO LOW PRES OVER FAR NW PORTION. WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION...WHILE A LOW PRES THAT WAS RECENTLY N OF THE AREA HAS NOW DROPPED S TO 30N77W WITH A PRES OF 1015 MB. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT. A SMALL POCKET OF GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS IS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN "C6SE3" JUST RECENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 5 FT VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRES. THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF LOW TO SOME EXTENT ...AND WITH ITS FORECAST POSITION AFTER DAY 2. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY STRONGER WITH WINDS ON THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM TUE ONWARD AS GFS IS MUCH WEAKER ..AND PRETTY MUCH SHOWS MORE OF A TROUGH FEATURE THAN A LOW AT THOSE TIMES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SSW TO NEAR 30N78W...AND ONLY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ON WED AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING TO NEAR 33N77W ON THU. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDS AS NECESSARY...PENDING JUST HOW THE LOW EVOLVES FURTHER WITH RESPECT TO IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.