000 AGXX40 KNHC 281842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE FAR NE GULF WITH A WEAK RIDGE W TO CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE THAT CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL W OF 87W WITH FRESH WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN NW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT PER RECENT OBS. TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 12Z HAS TO BE MUCH FARTHER W...AND IS LIKELY ALREADY INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION OCCURRING W OF 96W ALL MORNING. TOO...SAL IS QUITE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY AND IS AS FAR W AS 94W AND LOOKS TO BE SPREADING NNW TOWARD THE SW AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH HIGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WWD NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW OFF SC COAST SINKS S TO SSW AND OFFSHORE OF N FL THROUGH MON. ANY ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH TYPICAL EVENING THROUGH MOVING W OFF OF YUCATAN EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO E PORTIONS THEN W ALONG 27-28N TO BAHAMAS ATTM AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SE INTO N PORTIONS...AND LOW PRES OFF SC COAST SINKS S TO ALONG 30N. MODEST PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MORNING ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS AND STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS CONFINED S OF 13.5N WHERE AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED REDUCED 8-9 FT WAVE FIELD. TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALONG ABOUT 72W ATTM WITH AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A SECONDARY PERTURBATION BEHIND IT. THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH 77W BY 12Z SUN...80-81 BY 12Z MON...AND WELL INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO EPAC BY TUE MORNING. GFS FORECASTING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AND THIS PASSING WAVE TO REACH 30 KT NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT THEN WEAKENING. BROAD FILED OF 20 KT PLUS WINDS APPROACHING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF SAL...AND RAISING SEAS 8-9 FT AND WILL SHIFT INTO THESE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44-45W ATTM EXPECTED TO REALIGN MORE NE TO SW AS LLVL RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE N...AND REACH 53-54W BY 12Z SUN...62-63W BY 12Z MON...AND 68-69W BY 12Z TUE. WAVE ENERGY TO SHIFT NW AS IT ENTERS CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REACHING AS FAR N AND PR AND VI. SAL TO THEN BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE E CARIB BY TUE NIGHT BEHIND WAVE. PRES GRAD WILL HAVE RELAXED AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH CARIB BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WE TO PRODUCE BROAD AREA OF 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS 7-10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO E PORTIONS THEN W ALONG 27-28N TO BAHAMAS ATTM AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SE INTO N PORTIONS...AND LOW PRES OFF SC COAST SINKS S TO ALONG 30N. PRESENTLY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS AREA WITH MORNING ASCAT PASSES SHOWING 15 KT TRADES GENERALLY S OF 22N WHERE SEAS ARE 4-5 FT. RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND LOW OFF N FL COAST MEANDERS AND ATTEMPT TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHIFTING IS S TO SSW BUT THEN BEGIN TO SHOW MODEST DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT TIME. SFC TROUGH EXTENDS S THEN SW FROM LOW AND WILL ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION ACROSS N BAHAMAS AND S FL NEXT FEW DAYS. AS LOW SHIFTS S IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR AND MOVE UNDER UPPER RIDGING WHERE IT MAY HAS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. GFS IS LEAST AGGRESSIVE OF 3 GLOBAL MODELS AND OPENS LOW UP TUE AND LIFTS NWD INTO SE US COASTAL SECTIONS...WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW SIMILAR OPENING UP OF CIRCULATION BUT WITH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS. ATTM HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD UKMET SOLUTION THROUGH TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.