000 AGXX40 KNHC 280757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WITH A RIDGE W TO NE TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE THAT CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT S-SW WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FORECAST WILL DEVIATE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ONES WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH SUN...THEN REPOSITIONED ITSELF OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY SUN NIGHT TUE NIGHT MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 83W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT...AND THE HIGH PRES SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OO UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH STRENGTH OF TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AFTER SUN MORNING. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE AREA...WHILE A A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES IS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 17N64W TO 10N66W...AND IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS APPROACHING 50W WITH ANOTHER ONE BEHIND THAT ONE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE THE 0236 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED GOOD COVERAGE OF STRONG E WINDS THERE. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH A LINGERING POCKET OF 6-8 FT SEAS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W AS NOTED IN A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS OVER THAT AREA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE PERIOD SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AS A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP TO THE E OF FLORIDA. I AM LEANING TOWARD THE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING THE STRONGER TRADES FOR THE PERIODS FROM SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE THE THOUGHT IN MIND THAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVES THE PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RELAX OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO SUN NIGHT. E WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE AT SLIGHTLY LOWERS SPEEDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY...TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 72W TONIGHT...TO JUST W OF JAMAICA LATE SUN...TO NEAR 85W LATE MON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE. THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY SUN EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS MON AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. NWPS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT TO LOW FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION SUN. A RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 29N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE RIDGE CONTINUING THROUGH SAT...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT EASTWARD ON SUN. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER S CAROLINA MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN. EARLIERRUNS OF THE ECMWF CARRIED THIS LOW FEATURE FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHILE THE UKMET HAD A SOLUTION OF TAKING THE LOW FROM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST RUNS OF THESE MODELS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS WITH TAKING THE LOW S INTO THE NW WATERS SUN THROUGH...AND LIFTING IT BACK N OF THE AREA WED. DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN WITH THE GFS AND NAVGEM BEING WEAKER WITH THE LOW. THE GFS ACTUALLY WEAKENS THE LOW TO A TROUGH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N80W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO DROP SE TO NEAR 31N79W EARLY TONIGHT...TO NEAR 30N79W EARLY SUN NIGHT... TO NEAR 29N79W EARLY MON NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING NE OF 31N LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FOR SURFACE FORECAST FEATURES WILL DEPICT A WEAK LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS WITH A WEAK FRONT INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT ON THE 48 AND 72W HR SURFACE FEATURE PROGS...AND SHOW A WEAK TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THE LOW. HOWEVER... THIS SOLUTION MAY BE MORE OF JUST A LOW FEATURE IN THE EVENT IT WERE TO INTENSIFY ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL ADJUST FUTURE WIND/WAVEHEIGHTS GRIDS AS NECESSARY...IF REQUIRED...PENDING EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT DROPS INTO THE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.