000 AGXX40 KNHC 271805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. 12Z UPDATE - THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST WITH THE TROUGHING EXPECTED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THIS SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING WHICH BLENDED THE 06Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS EVEN FARTHER E WITH BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS E. -------------------------------------------------------- ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/26 UKMET APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BY CARRYING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE ATLC OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF...SO ITS SOLUTION WAS THROWN OUT. MEANWHILE...THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE 06Z GFS AND THE 00Z/26 ECMWF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HANDLE THE LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG THE YUCATAN BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST GRIDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW GULF SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A PARADE OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z/26 ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THEIR TIMING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE MODELS LIE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SUN MORNING ONWARD. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF HERE. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AS A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP SHOP OFF FLORIDA. THE ECMWF IS MORE EASTERLY WITH THE TROUGHING AND SHOVES THE RIDGE FARTHER FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC IS NOT HIGH. THE GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS-ECMWF FROM SUN MORNING ONWARD. THIS WEAKENS THE WINDS OFF THE COAT OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS COMPARED TO THE GFS FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE WANES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP SHOP OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE 00Z/26 UKMET APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BY CARRYING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE ATLC OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO ITS SOLUTION WAS THROWN OUT. AS MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE EASTERLY ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THIS TROUGHING BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SUGGESTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE CALL YESTERDAY PREFERRED A QUASI-STATIONARY SOLUTION THROUGH TUE NIGHT CLOSER TO THE GFS POSITION. AT ANY RATE...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ENHANCED TRADES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA IN THE EVENINGS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.