000 AGXX40 KNHC 270758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WITH A RIDGE W TO NE TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE THAT CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N91W TO 18N95W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT S-SW WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FORECAST WILL DEVIATE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ONES WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH SUN...THEN REPOSITIONED ITSELF OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY SUN NIGHT TUE NIGHT MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A PRESENT CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN...AND TO JUST S OF THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SW GULF. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT...AND THE HIGH PRES SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE AREA WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 18N MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS MAINLY CAPTURED IN A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS TO BE CONFINED FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO SUN NIGHT. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS AND NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS ECMWF. MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT TO LOW FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION. A HIGH PRES RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE RIDGE CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT EASTWARD ON SAT. AS WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE LATER PERIODS WITH REGARDS TO A LOW/TROUGH FEATURE POSSIBLY MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. AND INTO THE NW PORTION. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LOW WITH POSSIBLE TROUGH OR WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRES WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN PART OF S CAROLINA TO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY SAT...AND SINKS IT S ALONG 79W THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING IT TO A TROUGH. IT THEN TAKES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LATEST UKMET SOLUTION IS SIMILAR WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT A BIT S WITH IT TAKING IT WESTWARD AND INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MON. THE LATEST ECMWF FORECASTS A LOW FEATURE TO MOVE OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST...SIMILARLY TO THE OTHER MODELS...ON SAT BUT IS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE E WITH ITS FORECAST OF THE LOW. IT FORECASTS THE LOW TO MOVE TO NEAR A POSITION OF 31N77W BY EARLY SUN NIGHT...TO NEAR 30N76.5W MON...AND WEAKENS IT NEAR THAT SAME POSITION ON TUE AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS S OVER SOUTHERN S CAROLINA. FOR SURFACE FORECAST FEATURES FOR PERIODS BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT WILL DEPICT A WEAK LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS WITH A WEAK FRONT INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS COULD ALSO BE A TROUGH. WILL ADJUST FUTURE WIND/WAVEHEIGHTS GRIDS AS NECESSARY...IF NEEDED TO DO SO...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE FOR WHEN IT MATERIALIZES AS MODELS SUGGEST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.