000 AGXX40 KNHC 260635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SABINE PASS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING IN WINDS OVER THE SW GULF BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY AND PRODUCES A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOCALLY ENHANCED E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH HIGHEST SEAS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLY THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO TROUGHING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG 28N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET AGREES GENERALLY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION AS WELL...BUT REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF THE FORECAST MODELS WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH...KEEPING THE FEATURE WEAK...BUT FAVOR THE GFS IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MWW3 AND NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE HEIGHT WAS PRETTY CLOSE OVERALL WITHIN A FOOT OR SO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.