000 AGXX40 KNHC 251751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING IN WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THIS WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY AND PRODUCES A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH HIGHEST SEAS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE TAKEN DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THIS AREA WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO TROUGHING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG 28N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IN DAYS 3-5. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET DRIFT THE TROUGH WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF THE FORECAST MODELS WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH...KEEPING THE FEATURE WEAK...BUT FAVOR THE GFS IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.