000 AGXX40 KNHC 250839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 439 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND N CENTRAL GULF. ASCAT DATA FROM 0340 UTC SHOWED THE EVENING TROUGH ESTABLISHED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF. BUOYS SHOWED SEAS WERE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE SW GULF AND 1 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE RADICALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE NW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FAR SW GULF SAT AND SUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT FAVORING THE GFS OVER THE SW AND W CENTRAL GULF TO CAPTURE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KT THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD 7 TO 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE MWW3 IN THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SATELLITE PASSES FROM 02 AND O3 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MODIFIED BY THE PERIODIC PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES THROUGH THE BASIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THIS SCENARIO AND ARE EVEN REASONABLY CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. NEITHER MODEL INDICATES A RETURN OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...BUT BOTH SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE PERSISTING OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES PASSAGES. A TROPICAL IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 68W/69W...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER EAST IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRI. THE NWPS INITIALIZED WELL WITH BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA...AND SERVES AS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...FRESH BREEZES AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED IN ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WINDS MODERATING SLIGHTLY THU AND FRI AS THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE STILL NOTED HOWEVER...AND THE MWW3 OUTPUT SHOWS SEAS MAINTAINING 8 FT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE MIGRATING FROM 26N-27N THU TO NEAR 29N-30N. THE ONLY AREA EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE AREA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICT A WEAK LOW PRES CLOSING OFF IN DIFFERENT AREAS AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATE SATURDAY...BUT EXACT LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE LOW ORIGINATES FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AND MIGRATES SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFS- ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW PRES SEEMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. MWW3 FAVORED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.