000 AGXX40 KNHC 241744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 144 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. MWW3-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BUILDING TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NW GULF BEGINNING WED NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE SW GULF. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE MWW3 IN THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT NEITHER EXPLICITLY SHOWS GALES THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WAS NO SCAT PASS TO CONFIRM THE CONDITONS...AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0200Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FEET ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE 1400Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS ON THE EDGE OF THE GALE AREA 2 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL 1200Z PERIOD. KEPT THE GALE WARNING UP FOR THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC SHIFTS N. THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC NOW WILL CARRY MORE AFRICAN DUST INTO THE REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEHIND THIS WAVE. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS USUALLY PANS OUT...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE GFS. THE NWPS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MATCHED UP BETTER TO THE ALTIMETER AND BUOYS. USED THE NWPS TO ADJUST THE WAVE FORECAST THERE...BUT IT INITIALIZED TOO LOW IN THE ATLC. THE MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST THERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE SW N ATLC THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE MIGRATING FROM 26N-27N THU TO NEAR 29N-30N. THE ONLY AREA EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE AREA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THE GFS HINTS THAT THE WINDS MAY PULSE TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT AFTER A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SW OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...THE ECMWF-GFS BLEND KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NWPS INITIALIZED THE SEAS IN THE ATLC LOW...SO THE MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.