000 AGXX40 KNHC 240655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE NW GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT THROUGH MON...EXCEPT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF ATTM WILL FOLLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND MOVE NW AND INTO MEXICO NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INLAND. RIDGE TO LIFT SLIGHTLY N THU-FRI AND REALIGN MORE NW TO SE AS DEEP LAYERED LOW MOVES INTO GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP NW PORTIONS. BY THU...LATE AFTERNOON TROUGHING ACROSS YUCATAN TO YIELD BROADER ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND KICK SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT EACH EVENING AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES INTO WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE IS NOSING INTO S FL SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT PASSING AEW'S AND YIELDING STRONG WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS WHERE AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS SHOWED AREA OF WINDS AROUND 30 KT. RECENT 0215 ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 11.5 FT WITHIN 35 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED GALES TONIGHT...TUE...AND WED NIGHT THERE BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FOR CURRENT 6 HOUR PERIOD. GIVEN THE ALTIMETER READING WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE AND SHOW PULSING AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUE TO GALES. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN LLVLS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH IN FAR EPAC AIDING IN LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW UP ACROSS FAR SW CARIB AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT W-NW THROUGH TONIGHT AND INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SAL BEHIND THE WAVE HAS SPREAD WWD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIB TO BEYOND 80W. ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AND BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAS BUOY 42058 BACK TO 9 FT WITH 8 FT SEAS EXTENDING N TO AROUND 15-15.5N. NOCTURNAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA TO RAISE SEAS TO NEAR 13 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO TO PULSE EACH NIGHT TO 20-25 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS NEARING 8 FT EARLY MORNING. GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT-THU AHEAD OF NEXT AEW THAT WILL ENTER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND E CARIB BEFORE SUNSET. THIS WAVE IS RACING W 25-30 KT AND CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEARLY 10 DEG PER DAY BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS CONSENSUS...THUS REACHING 62W BY 00Z WED...72-73W BY 00Z THU AND 82-83W BY 00Z FRI. VERY STRONG SAL AND UNUSUALLY DENSE LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST IS RACING ACROSS ATLC BEHIND THIS WAVE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES LATE WED AFTERNOON...LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBYS 5-6 NM. GOES-R PROVING GROUND PRODUCTS SHOW ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR DUST THAT I HAVE NOT SEEN THIS FAR OFFSHORE OF AFRICA BEFORE...AND IS REACHING 45W ATTM...DAMMED UP BEHIND THE AEW ALONG ABOUT 52W. RIDGE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND LIFT A FEW DEG N THU-FRI AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG SURGE TO COMPENSATE FOR SLIGHTLY REDUCED PRES GRADIENT AND WILL LIKELY SEE GALES OFF COLOMBIA THU AND FRI NIGHTS AGAIN...AND STRONG TRADES SPREADING W INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS SHIFTING WWD IN DYNAMIC FETCH WITH AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE RACING WAVE. WW3 SHOWING 10 FT SEAS MAKING IT TO 82W OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO AREA 27N THEN W-SW TO S CENTRAL FL ATTM. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RIDGE TO WEAKEN BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME SE TO S ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS WHERE WINDS VEER S TO SW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.