000 AGXX40 KNHC 230748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT THROUGH MON...EXCEPT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS TUE THROUGH THU. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING WEST THROUGH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS ALLOWING FRESH STRONG TRADE WINDS TO FOLLOW THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED IN A 02 UTC ASCAT PASS. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT NEAR THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS WHICH MEANS SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PLAUSIBLE. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TUE. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY FAST MOVING AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED...BEFORE STARTING TO SLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. GIVEN THE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IT CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 13 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 24N/25N INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.