000 AGXX40 KNHC 221738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE THROUGH THU. NO MAJOR CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT THROUGH MON...EXCEPT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT. THIS LOCAL EFFECT WAS CLEARLY CAPTURED BY THE AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF TO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS TUE THROUGH THU. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION TUE THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N83W TO 10N84W WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. A BUILDING RIDGE NE OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER A LARGE AREA ACROSS THE BASIN AND PEAK TONIGHT AND MON... THEN TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING,. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 35W WILL MOVE WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. IT WILL PASS 55W EARLY TUE...APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE...PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK IT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...AND SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION HAS MOVED N OF AREA AND NOW IS NEAR 32N72W. THE CENTER REMAINS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF AROUND 7 FT BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.