000 AGXX40 KNHC 220611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE AND WED. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS NOTED IN MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH MON. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF TO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS TUE THROUGH THU. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION TUE AND WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 80W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CENTRAL PANAMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THUS WILL SLOW AND AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TODAY INTO MON. A BUILDING RIDGE NE OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE BASIN. OBSERVATIONS AT BUOY 42058 ARE SHOWING PEAK WINDS TO 27 KT BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL PASS 55W EARLY TUE...APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE...PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK IT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...AND SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR 20N77W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM . THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE N OF AREA LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A MORE DEVELOP AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NC MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.