000 AGXX40 KNHC 211733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 133 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE AND WED. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS NOTED IN MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF TO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS TUE AND WED. THE ECMWF IS CHARACTERISTICALLY TOO WEAK SHOWING THE WINDS FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION TUE AND WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SLOWING AND AMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MON. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE BASIN. IN ADDITION...THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE...REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE...AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TRACKING IT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...AND SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ZONE AMZ111...IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BASED ON BUOY 41010. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE N OF AREA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NHC WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A VERY LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MON MAINTAINING FRESH WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ123 MON NIGHT TROUGH WED NIGHT. LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.