000 AGXX40 KNHC 210725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE GENERALLY INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER EVERYWHERE EXPECT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS NOTED IN MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TUE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING. THE ECMWF IS CHARACTERISTICALLY TOO WEAK SHOWING THE WINDS FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION TUE AND WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HAITI AND NW COLOMBIA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY BEFORE SLOWING AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATE SUNDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN MAJOR MODELS SHOWING STRONGER TRADE WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE BASIN. THERE IS SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAINTY AMONG THE MAJOR MODELS SHOWING THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TRACKING IT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...AND SHOWS IT APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 26N INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.