000 AGXX40 KNHC 200744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 344 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE MOSTLY INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER EVERYWHERE EXPECT OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LATE EVENING LOCAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP BRIEF PERIODS OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE ECMWF AND GFS...INDICATE THIS WILL BECOME A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A SLUG OF MOISTURE ARRIVING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK TO DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BETTER RESOLUTION FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...ENTERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SAT...BEFORE SLOWING AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATE SUNDAY...INTERACTING WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THEN SURGE AGAIN BEHIND THE WAVE BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W THROUGH MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUE AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PASSES WEST OF 55W APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO ROUGHLY 28N75W WHERE A WEAK MESOSCALE LOW PRES AREA IS DEFINED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT SATELLITE DATA. THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE COAST OF E CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR THE LOW. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY RELATED TO LOW PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE. THIS LIFTS NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WEST AGAIN MON INTO TUE. THE STRONGER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.