000 AGXX40 KNHC 190616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS TODAY THROUGH FRI THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FIXED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAINING THERE MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND USED HERE WAS APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SPILLING INTO THE YUCATAN LATE IN THE WEEK COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS WAS USED IN THE SHORT RANGE AND THE ECMWF WAS USED IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE TO ADJUST WINDS AND THE NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS TODAY THROUGH FRI THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MAX WINDS TO 30 KT SEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL 00Z GFS RUNS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA COMPARED BETTER TO THE 0314 AND 0220 UTC ASCAT PASSES THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z GFS ONLY HAS WINDS TO 25 KT HERE. GO FIGURE. STILL...THE GFS COMPARES BETTER TO THE SCATTEROMETER WINDS OVERALL THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NAVGEM. WILL ADJUST THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTION TOWARD THE GFS EARLY ON. THIS WAS THE SOLUTION USED FOR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AS WELL. BY FRI EVENING...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAN THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. IT IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...BUILDING WIDESPREAD 25 KT SE WINDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING TROUGHING IN THE REGION AROUND THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD FOR TWO WEEKS NOW. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST WILL BE BLENDED WITH THE NWPS AND ADJUSTED FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS TODAY THROUGH FRI THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO LINGER NEAR 30N THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...REACHING 25-26N OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TOWARD THE GFS IN THE SHORT RANGE AND THE ECMWF IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING STEMMING SW OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NWPS SOLUTION SHOULD JIVE BEST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.