000 AGXX40 KNHC 181821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS FOR WIND AND ADJUSTED. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FIXED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS. THE MODEL BLEND USED HERE WAS APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SPILLING INTO THE YUCATAN LATE IN THE WEEK COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 12Z GFS CARRIES 25-30 KT THROUGH 12Z THU WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE WEAKER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN NIGHT THAN THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGING TO THE N SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 20 KT/8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO LINGER NEAR 30N THROUGH THU THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...REACHING 27N BY SUN NIGHT. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TOWARD THE ECMWF TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING IN THE CARIBBEAN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.