000 AGXX40 KNHC 180643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FIXED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND USED HERE WAS APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SPILLING INTO THE YUCATAN LATE IN THE WEEK COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST WINDS AND THE NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z ECMWF/EC WAVE COMPARE BETTER THAN THE GFS/MWW3 AND UKMET/UK WAVE TO THE 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OVER 8 FT OBSERVED BY THE 0240 UTC ASCAT AND 0342 UTC JASON2 PASSES...RESPECTIVELY. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 00Z GFS CARRIES 25-30 KT BY 06Z THU HERE WHILE THE NAVGEM NOW ONLY HAS WINDS TO 25 KT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 20-25 KT AND THE UKMET IS A WEAKER 15-20 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGING TO THE N SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ECMWF HAS STABILIZED IN ITS SOLUTION...SHOWING 20-25 KT HERE FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE NWPS BASED ON A PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE USED TO ADJUST SEAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN NIGHT THAN THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. THE NAVGEM HAS BACKED OFF COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AND NOW IS IN THE WEAKER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE TROUGHING HERE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING TROUGHING IN THE REGION AROUND THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD FOR WELL OVER A WEEK NOW. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST WILL BE BLENDED WITH THE NWPS AND ADJUSTED FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO LINGER NEAR 30N THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...REACHING 25N BY SUN NIGHT. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TOWARD THE ECMWF TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING STEMMING SW OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NWPS SOLUTION SHOULD JIVE BEST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.