000
AGXX40 KNHC 171836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS FOR WIND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
FIXED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRI.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS FOR WIND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 12Z
GFS CARRIES 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE THE ECMWF
AND UKMET SHOWS 20-25 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE
AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGING TO THE N SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N
ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WINDS AND A WEAK
FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE NE CORNER THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.