000 AGXX40 KNHC 170612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FIXED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND USED HERE WAS APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CMC. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASIDE FROM THE GENERALLY UNRELIABLE AND POORLY INITIALIZED NAVGEM...THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 76W PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A FACTOR IN THIS 00Z RUN OF THE GFS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD BUILT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE WAVE. THE 00Z GFS CARRIES 25-30 KT HERE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS 20-25 KT AND THE UKMET IS A WEAKER 15-20 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGING TO THE N SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO TONE DOWN THE WINDS HERE LATE TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT THAN THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. AGAIN...THE NAVGEM IS THE ONLY MODEL STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGHING THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING TROUGHING IN THE REGION AROUND THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD FOR WELL OVER A WEEK NOW. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST WILL BE BLENDED WITH THE NWPS AND ADJUSTED FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WINDS AND A WEAK FRONT EXITING THE NE CORNER LATER TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TOWARD THE ECMWF TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING STEMMING SW OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NWPS SOLUTION SHOULD JIVE BEST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.