000 AGXX40 KNHC 161851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. FOR WAVES BLENDED 12 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT ARE REPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE E- SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF SW OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...EXCEPT FOR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WED NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU...AND THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN ECMWF BLENDED TUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR WIND. FOR WAVE GUIDANCE USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE HEIGHTS. THE LATEST GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD THE SCENARIO OF LOW PRES FORMING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT MEDIUM WITH POSSIBLE SW CARIBBEAN TROUGH/WEAK DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEK AS MENTIONED BELOW. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1412 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A RATHER LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SMALL POCKET OF NE-E 25-30 KT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY RANGE. E GENTLE WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR 8-11 FT IN THE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS...AND FOR 3-4 FT IN THE NE AND NW PORTIONS. THE 25-30 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. ITS NORTHERN PORTION WILL PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI. A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MIGHT BE THE POSSIBLE FEATURE THE GFS HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVELY ADVERTISING THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRESENTLY...ACTIVE COLD TOP CONVECTION IS VIVIDLY OBSERVED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OR LOW MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12 UTC GFS. FOR WAVES LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N79W TO JUST E OF E CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS AT 28N76W WITH A RIDGE ESE TO NEAR 26N64W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 29N E OF 60W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 30N77W. THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT S TO NEAR 27N BY FRI NIGHT AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AGREE THAT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO 20 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.