000 AGXX40 KNHC 160629 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FIXED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND USED HERE WAS APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TUE ONWARD FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES AT 0142 UTC...0236 UTC...AND 0324 SHOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND AN AREA OF STRONG E-SE WINDS OFF BELIZE. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZED AS STRONG AS THE ASCAT SHOWS OFF COLOMBIA AND HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER S NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE 00Z GFS WAS THE CLOSEST MODEL TO THE OBS AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS FOR DAY 1. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDS TO MATCH THESE OBS. THANKFULLY...THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE GALE FORCE WINDS THE 18Z RUN BUILT ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS IT PASSES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY WED. GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK APPEARED TO BE THE CULPRIT AS THIS RUN STAMPED OUT A NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN BULLS EYE OF RAIN IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE 00Z GFS IS A LESS BULLISH 25 KT WHILE BOTH THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW 15-20 KT WINDS HERE AT THAT TIME. THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION MAY STILL BE THE RESULT OF SOME FEEDBACK IN THE REGION...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGING TO THE N SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SOLID AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO TONE DOWN THE WINDS HERE LATE TUE THROUGH WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI THAN THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. THE NAVGEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGHING THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN BUILDING TROUGHING IN THE REGION AROUND THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ITS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WILL PUT EVEN MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION FROM THU ONWARD FOR THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE. THE PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST WILL BE BLENDED WITH THE NWPS AND ADJUSTED FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGINNING TUE FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WINDS AND A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO WATERS N OF 27N E OF 75W TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF FROM TUE ONWARD TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING STEMMING SE OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NWPS SOLUTION SHOULD JIVE BEST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.