000 AGXX40 KNHC 151843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. FOR WAVES BLENDED 12 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT ARE REPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND SE GULF EXCEPT FOR N OF 27N W OF 90W...N OF 25N E OF 90W AND SE OF LINE FROM 25N97W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO SE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 28N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE FAR SE PORTION MAY BE REPLACED BY SIMILAR SEAS DURING NEXT WEEK AS THE SE FETCH BEHIND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVES THAT MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCREASES SOME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR WIND. FOR WAVE GUIDANCE USED AND EVEN BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. THE LATEST GFS HAS TONED WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE LEVEL WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS FORECAST. AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY NE 20-30 KT WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA...E TO NEAR 72W AND W TO NEAR 79W. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS CONTAINED A FEW 35 KT WIND BARBS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY RANGE. E TO SE GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA...WHILE E GENTLE WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR 8-11 FT IN THE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS...AND FOR 3-4 FTR IN NE AND NW PORTIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WAS THE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING LOW PRES FORMING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WED...AND FORECAST TO LIFT N FROM THERE. THE LATEST RUN VALID AT 12 UTC...NOW DEPICTS A MUCH MORE TONED DOWN VERSION OF THIS SCENARIO INSTEAD WITH MORE OF A TROUGH FEATURE WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKER LOW PRES. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT LOW PRES IN THAT AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NAVGEM. I DO PRESENTLY SEE AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THERE. THIS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. I DO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A TROUGH MAY BE FORM...OR IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH MAY SPAWN A LOW DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF POPULATING GRIDS WITH ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AFTER MON NIGHT TO TAPER DOWN WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IF A LOW DOES FORMS...AND IT IS STRONGER THAN WHAT THE LATEST GFS DEPICTS THEN WILL MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT SEA GRIDS FOR AFTER TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12 UTC GFS. FOR WAVES LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE NEAR 28N IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W SW TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MON. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS SUN...AND ACROSS THE NE PORTION TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 30N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO 20 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.