000 AGXX40 KNHC 150610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN BY MON WHERE IT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING THU NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS BUILDS MORE TROUGHING THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE AND BECOMES STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEFS MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND GENERALLY CARRIES LIGHTER WINDS...BUT NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF WINDS TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FROM TUE ONWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TUE ONWARD FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1926 UTC SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS ALONG 77W BETWEEN 11N-16.5N AND A 0204 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS HERE...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZED HERE THAN THE ECMWF AND APPEARS REASONABLE THROUGH MON. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE 00Z GFS BUILDS TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING LATE TUE BUT WAITS TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR EASTERN HONDURAS UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU NIGHT. STILL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITS STRONGER RIDGING TO THE N AND TROUGHING TO THE S COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF CAUSES IT TO HAVE A MUCH STRONGER WIND SOLUTION IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FROM LATE TUE ONWARD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION HAD BLENDED IN MORE OF THE STRONGER GFS. THE UKMET SUPPORTS A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE OF A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS/MWW3 GENERATES WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT WINDS AND 12-14 FT SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN HONDURAS BY WED EVENING WHILE THE UKMET/UK WAVE IS IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE WITH 20 KT WINDS HERE AND 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE SE OF THIS AREA AND THE ECMWF/EC WAVE IS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE FOR SEAS AND HAS WINDS 15-20 KT HERE AND 20-25 ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE UKMET FOR WIND. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOLUTION...WILL HEDGE TOWARD A 50-50 BLEND OF THE STRONGER PREVIOUS SOLUTION THAT WAS NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. FOR SEAS...THE NWPS SOLUTION SHOULD JIVE BEST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGINNING TUE FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO NEED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WINDS AND A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO WATERS N OF 27N E OF 75W TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF FROM TUE ONWARD TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING STEMMING SE OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NWPS SOLUTION SHOULD JIVE BEST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.