000 AGXX40 KNHC 141851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. FOR WAVES BLENDED 12 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS AND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA NW TO SW LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT ARE REPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE INTERIOR U.S. MID-ATLC REGION TROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W TO 25N92W. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY ELEVATED SEAS ARE OBSERVED FROM 25N TO 28N E OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 28N89W. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON WITH NW FLOW BEHIND IT PULLING IN DRIER AIR IN BEHIND THE TSTM ACTIVITY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF SUN AS INTERMITTENTLY WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERS FORM OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE FAR SE PORTION MAY BE REPLACED BY SIMILAR SEAS DURING NEXT WEEK AS THE SE FETCH BEHIND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVES THAT MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCREASES SOME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLENDED TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR WIND. FOR WAVE GUIDANCE USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 1456 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED AN AREA OF MOSTLY NE 25 KT WITH A FEW 30 KT WIND BARBS IN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY RANGE. E TO SE GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA...WHILE E GENTLE WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR 9-12 FT IN THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING LOW PRES FORMING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WED...AND FORECAST TO LIFT N FROM THERE. I DO PRESENTLY SEE AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND IN ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AFTER TUE NIGHT TO TAPER DOWN WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL THERE ARE MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNS THAT A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL IN DEED FORM. IT COULD BE THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM FROM THE PRESENT ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GRIDS FOR AFTER TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12 UTC GFS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A 1024 HIGH AT 28N62W TO S FLORIDA. STRONG TSTMS MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE N OF 27N W OF 76W. LIKE YESTERDAY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO SUN MORNING AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS SUN...AND ACROSS THE NE PORTION SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 30N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY RANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.