000 AGXX40 KNHC 140642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLEND FROM TUE ONWARD FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NECESSARY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL GULF AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN BY MON. THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE WINDS MEET THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF 20-25 KT IS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO LOWER BY TUE AS THE 00Z GFS BUILDS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR HONDURAS...NOW WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY...BUT IT BECOMES STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN STARTING TUE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA COMPARED TO THE RUN FROM 00Z/13 AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS...THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED BY TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TUE ONWARD FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 2300 UTC SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W AND A 0138 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT JUST NW OF HERE...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZED HERE THAN THE ECMWF AND APPEARS REASONABLE THROUGH MON. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING TUE. THE GFS GENERATES WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT WINDS AND 12-14 FT SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THIS STRONG SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER. ONLY THE GEFS SHOWS ANY SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. LEANING ON THE ECMWF AND NWPS FOR THE UPDATED GRIDS FROM TUE ONWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGINNING TUE FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES THROUGH MON WITH EC WAVE ADDED IN TUE ONWARD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO NEED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WINDS AND A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO WATERS N OF 27N E OF 74W SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER W WATERS BY THU...THE SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE. STILL...ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE FROM TUE ONWARD TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERENCE FOR LESS TROUGHING STEMMING SE OF THE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.