000 AGXX40 KNHC 131856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. FOR WAVES BLENDED 12 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 26N. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOW SCATTERED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS MAINLY TO THE NE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF PORTION BY MON. THE 12 UTC GFS MODEL HAS DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES TO THE SE OF THE GULF NEAR HONDURAS TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SCENARIO HAS BECOME LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AS THE GFS AND THE NAVGEM...TO SOME EXTENT...CONTINUE TO BE OUTLIERS IN THE FORMATION OF SUCH A LOW. THE GFS APPEARS THAT IT IS HAS RESOLUTION ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM IN CAPTURING CONVECTION AND LARGELY BLOW IT UP INTO A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR WIND. FOR WAVES SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN APPLIED NWPS GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA JUST RECENTLY DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD HELPING TO LESSEN THE CULPRIT PRES GRADEINT THERE. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 1516 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING HINTED AT A BROAD SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. 13 FT SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF RECENT GALE WARNING WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE LATE TONIGHT THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 13 FT ON SAT AS ANOTHER BRIEF EPISODE OF GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SAME AREA OF NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTS UP AGAIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BACK DOWN TO 30 KT BY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BRIEFLY AGAIN TO 30 KT ON SUN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A FEED BACK ISSUE IN DEPICTING LOW PRES FORMING BEGINNING LATE WED. WILL ADJUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH ECMWF BLEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12 UTC GFS AS 12 GFS DELAYS FEEBACK ISSUES IN NW CARIBBEAN TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 26N DOMINATING THE WINDS. STRONG TSTMS MOVING EASTWARD ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST FROM PALM BEACH TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE NW ZONE 111 TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CAN ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE ALONG 26N WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON SAT AFTERNOON...REACH TO NEAR 28N BY EARLY SUN...TO NEAR 29N MON. BY TUE...A WEAK HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW PORTION BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A RIDGE NEAR 30N LATE WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.